Complex Systems are Hard to Control
The deployment of powerful deep learning systems such as ChatGPT raises the question of how to make these systems safe and consistently aligned with human intent. Since building these systems is an engineering
Principles for Productive Group Meetings
Note: This post is based on a Google document I created for my research group. It speaks in the first person, but I think the lessons could be helpful for many research groups,
Emergent Deception and Emergent Optimization
I’ve previously argued that machine learning systems often exhibit emergent capabilities, and that these capabilities could lead to unintended negative consequences. But how can we reason concretely about these consequences?
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
Thanks to Collin Burns, Ruiqi Zhong, Cassidy Laidlaw, Jean-Stanislas Denain, and
Erik Jones, who generated most of the considerations discussed in this post.
Previously [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/], I
evaluated the accuracy
AI Forecasting: One Year In
Last August, my research group created a forecasting contest
[https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting/] to predict AI progress on four
benchmarks. Forecasts were asked to predict state-of-the-art performance (SOTA)
on each benchmark for