Prioritizing Information

So far, we've focused on individual skills involved in a forecast: extrapolating trends, employing reference classes, how to combine estimates, and thinking about alternatives. Next I want to turn to integrating these, and

The "Other" Option

For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout. For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number of plausible