Jacob Steinhardt

Jacob Steinhardt

The "Other" Option

For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout. For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number of plausible

Combining Forecasts

Often there are multiple ways to forecast the same thing, and we'd like a way of combining the forecasts together. For instance, consider the following question: Will Will be among the top 3