For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout. For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number of plausible
Often there are multiple ways to forecast the same thing, and we'd like a way of combining the forecasts together. For instance, consider the following question: Will Will be among the top 3
When we output a forecast, we're either explicitly or implicitly outputting a probability distribution. For example, if we forecast the AQI in Berkeley tomorrow to be "around" 30, plus or minus
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 class on Forecasting. Let's start by considering the following question: What is the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov.
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 class on Forecasting. Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your homework assignment. You think about all the
