In 1972, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Philip Anderson wrote the essay "
More
Is Different [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/177/4047/393]". In it, he
argues that quantitative changes can lead
Machine learning is touching increasingly many aspects of our society, and its
effect will only continue to grow. Given this, I and many others care about
risks from future ML systems and how
The previous post started forecasting the UK hospital peak (based on information
through Dec. 21, 2021). We generated several considerations and ultimately
focused on the Omicron doubling time, the peak number of cases,
So far, we've focused on individual skills involved in a forecast:
extrapolating
trends [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/forecasting-zeroth-and-first-order/],
employing reference classes
[https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/base-rates-and-reference-classes/], how to
combine estimates [https:
For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide
feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout.
For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number
