For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide
feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout.
For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number
Often there are multiple ways to forecast the same thing, and we'd like a way of
combining the forecasts together. For instance, consider the following question:
> Will Will be among
When we output a forecast, we're either explicitly or implicitly outputting a
probability distribution.
For example, if we forecast the AQI in Berkeley tomorrow to be "around" 30, plus
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [http://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's start by considering the following question:
> What is the probability that Joe Biden is
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [https://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your
homework
