Combining Forecasts
Often there are multiple ways to forecast the same thing, and we'd like a way of
combining the forecasts together. For instance, consider the following question:
> Will Will be among
Jacob Steinhardt
Common Probability Distributions
When we output a forecast, we're either explicitly or implicitly outputting a
probability distribution.
For example, if we forecast the AQI in Berkeley tomorrow to be "around" 30, plus
Base Rates and Reference Classes
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [http://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's start by considering the following question:
> What is the probability that Joe Biden is
Forecasting: Zeroth and First Order
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [https://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your
homework
Measuring and Forecasting Risks from AI
As part of my work for Open Philanthropy, I recently wrote a call for grant
proposals on measuring and forecasting risks
[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cPwcUSl0Y8TyZxCumGPBhdVUN0Yyyw9AR1QshlRI3gc/edit]
from future AI systems.