## Base Rates and Reference Classes

Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [http://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's start by considering the following question:
> What is the probability that Joe Biden is

Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [http://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's start by considering the following question:
> What is the probability that Joe Biden is

Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 [https://www.stat157.com/] class
on Forecasting.
Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your
homework