Prioritizing Information

So far, we've focused on individual skills involved in a forecast: extrapolating trends [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/forecasting-zeroth-and-first-order/], employing reference classes [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/base-rates-and-reference-classes/], how to combine estimates [https:

The "Other" Option

For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout. For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number