Previously, I argued [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/future-ml-systems-will-be-qualitatively-different/] that we should expect future ML systems to often exhibit "emergent" behavior, where they acquire new

In 1972, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Philip Anderson wrote the essay " More Is Different [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/177/4047/393]". In it, he argues that quantitative changes can

Machine learning is touching increasingly many aspects of our society, and its effect will only continue to grow. Given this, I and many others care about risks from future ML systems and how

The previous post started forecasting the UK hospital peak (based on information through Dec. 21, 2021). We generated several considerations and ultimately focused on the Omicron doubling time, the peak number of cases,

So far, we've focused on individual skills involved in a forecast: extrapolating trends [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/forecasting-zeroth-and-first-order/], employing reference classes [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/